I’ve voted for Libertarian and Independent candidates many times, so I’m familiar with voting for a lost cause, but if you are more practically minded voter who wants to win so much, “You’ll get bored with winning,” then Trump is the last guy you should ever support.
The numbers simply don’t add up in Trump’s favor.
The numbers simply don’t add up in Trump’s favor.
Out of the three GOP candidates who have a real chance of winning, Trump is the only one who loses to Hillary Clinton in general election polling. Cruz edges out Clinton by a hairsbreadth with a .2% margin whereas Rubio wins with a solid 4.2 points over Hillary, yet Trump loses in a messy 4.7 point defeat in a head-to-head with Secretary Clinton. For comparison, Obama defeated Romney solidly in 2012 with a smaller edge of 3.9%.
Trump's polling against Sanders is even more disastrous as Trump is projected to lose by a staggering 9.7% points. You have to go back thirty-two years all the way to Ronald Reagan’s second Presidential election in 1984 to find a blowout comparable.
Looking closer at the numbers, the reason for Trump’s predicted defeat is obvious. Last July, one-third of Republicans and two-thirds of Independents stated they would not vote for Trump under any circumstances. Though I cannot find an updated poll of the exact same type, recent favorability ratings indicate those numbers may have shifted a bit in the intervening months. As of January, Trump had a favorability of +27 with Republicans possibly indicating a slight increase in his support. Among Independents, Trump’s favorability ratings are at negative twenty-seven indicating a likely rise of disapproval. Looking at the nation as a whole, 56.2% of the American electorate holds an unfavorable impression of Donald Trump which gives him the highest unfavorable ratings in the entire Presidential field. Don’t make the mistake of thinking that the other 43.8% of the electorate is favorable towards Trump; 5.5% are undecided and could go either way.
All of these boring statistics add up to say one obvious thing,Trump is not well-loved by anybody outside his diehard supporters, and he faces a tremendous obstacle in that the vast majority of the independent voters Trump needs to win have already decided that they hate him.
Of course, we have another nine months before the general election. Anything can happen, right?
The problem is that we have every reason to expect Trump’s popularity to decline if he wins the primary.
Thus far, the media has been pushing Trump hard. Analysis of the nightly news on ABC, CBS and NBC between January and November of 2015 revealed that 234 minutes were dedicated to Trump whereas Rubio received a mere 22 minutes and Cruz a paltry 7 minutes. This disparity of coverage is huge, and if it is reflected throughout the rest of the media, then this coverage is worth as much as thousands or perhaps even tens of thousands of political ads. Considering the glut of free publicity, it’s amazing Trump has any competition in the primary.
This all changes the second Trump wins the primary. At that point, every non-conservative media source will end the preferential treatment of Trump and unsheathe their claws.
I know many have been awed by Trump’s apparent ability to withstand criticism and weather any political storm, but the obvious truth that many have been overlooking is that the media has not yet unleashed on Donald Trump.
I know some refuse to see this. They say Trump is constantly being criticized by the media, and this is true in a sense, but the criticism has been scattered and faint. Trump has routinely said something outrageous, media personalities chatter about it for a few days, then the light sprinkling of outrage passes like a misty Spring shower and the news cycle moves to a new story. The mainstream media has certainly tsked their disdain, but they haven’t whipped out the carving knives, grabbed hold of an issue and carved a visionary, destructive narrative around Trump.
Consider the narratives the media created during the past election cycles. Bush was an idiot, and yet they never call Trump an idiot despite the way he rambles incoherently, reveals vast ignorance on important policies and makes inaccurate boasts that most ten-year-old boys would find unseemly. McCain was branded a warmonger, yet despite the fact that Trump says we should kill the families of terrorists and steal Iraq’s oil, I’ve never heard the media say Trump is a warmonger. Romney was labeled anti-woman and elitist, and yet Trump is rarely challenged on his plethora of sexist acts and infrequently accused of being a one-percenter despite Trump infinite opportunities for the typical class warfare tactics.
If you’ve read my previous articles on Trump, you’ve likely learned much more about The Donald from me than you’ve learned from months of mainstream media coverage, but when the gloves of the media come off (and they will come off), the media will throw every single attack they have at Trump, and if you think the stuff I pointed out was harsh, please realize that I left out an innumerable amount of Trump’s potentially damaging acts, positions and statements because they were somewhat ambiguous. The mainstream media will not be so generous, and they will drudge up every person Trump has ever wronged and give them hour-long documentary specials where the tear-jerking music will swell at just the right moment to leave all of America with righteous anger towards Donald Trump.
Trump will not win the general election. The numbers already look nigh impossible, and when the full force and fury of the media unleash on him, he will not stand a chance.
In the most literal sense, Trump is a loser.
If you enjoyed this article, you'll be happy to know I've written a whole series on Trump. Click Here to Check them Out.