The GOP Primary - Whoever Wins…We Lose

I have bad news. Hillary Clinton is going to be the next President of the United States. Looking at the likely potential outcomes of the GOP primary, none of them show a probable path for GOP victory. 

Scenario #1 - Trump Wins the Nomination

Over a third of the Republican Party says they will never pull the lever for Donald Trump in the general election. If these numbers hold true, Trump cannot win. Even if Trump manages to convince two-thirds of Republican holdouts to jump aboard the Trump Train, the remaining ten percent of holdouts would still be enough to scuttle Trump’s Presidential dreams. Some have argued that what Trump loses in Republicans he will gain in independents and Democrats, but there is no evidence for that. In fact, 54% of likely voters of all political stripes would never vote for Donnie. To win, Trump would have to convince people adamantly against him to pull a complete 180, and that rarely happens in politics. Head-to-head polling contests between Trump and Hillary also predict doom; Trump has lost all ten of the last ten match-ups against Hillary never coming within five points of her lead.

Trump stands no significant chance of winning.

Scenario #2 - Cruz Wins the Nomination

In a fair contest, Cruz has a significantly better chance of winning against Hillary. Of the last ten head-to-head match ups, Cruz has won four. However, Cruz cannot secure the primary via statge delegates, so Cruz’s only hope is a contested convention, but contested conventions are and always have been the playground of the GOP establishment, a group which despises Ted Cruz. The establishment could allow the contested convention to proceed with a level playing field or they could back Cruz since he has the best chance of winning the general election, but it’s also possible Obama could become a hardcore conservative tomorrow and fight for the repeal of Obamacare. Sadly, none of these possibilities seem likely. 

Even if Cruz does win, we still have to address the elephant in the room or perhaps more aptly the elephant who will leave the room. At last week’s CNN town hall, Trump has disavowed his promise to back whoever is chosen as the GOP nominee. It’s not hard to imagine Trump running third party either out of spite, ego or delusion, and if he does, 80% of Trump supporters have said they will break from the GOP ranks thereby scuttling a Cruz presidency. 

Scenario #3 - The Establishment Picks a Nominee

Since both Trump and Cruz are anti-establishment candidates in their own ways, it would surprise no one if the GOP rigged the system for a candidate they could more easily control. John Kasich Jeb Bush, Scott Walker or Paul Ryan could all be tapped for the role. 

If you combine the Republican support for Trump and Cruz, you see that a massive 72% of the GOP is sick and tired of the establishment nonsense. Both sides will be infinitely ticked if their candidates are tossed aside for a puppet President. The base will see that the GOP doesn’t care about the choice of it’s constituents, and massive fractures will appear in the party as both Trump and Cruz supporters jump the sinking GOP ship. 

Conclusion 

Hillary will almost certainly win, but this problem extends beyond this election. This could easily be the end of the GOP for there’s no likely scenario that results in anything other than a fractured party.